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14.
Issues and Choices. Issues, tradeoffs,
and options for the future of the 3D web.
14A. Issues and Choices - Technology
and Science
• How
do we foster an adequate base of metaverse
academic research, in service to its further
development? We need to better understand
the metaverse both as a social space/world
and separately as an educational or commercial
platform/tool, depending on context. As
one example, Building
the Field of Digital Media and Learning
(DML) is the MacArthur
Foundation's promising new $50M initiative
to gather what is known about how digital
media and learning (DML) technologies are
changing the way young people learn, play,
socialize, and participate in civic life,
and to seed innovation for continued growth.
Getting other groups to lead in this area
(National
Science Foundation, National
Academies of Science, etc.), or not,
will be a key challenge and social choice
for this generation. |
|
| • User-created
content (UCC) and small enterprise created
content (SECC) tools for virtual worlds. How
quickly can today’s 3D worlds get powerful,
free, nonproprietary tools, platforms, and
licenses to users and small enterprises for
their 3D content creation? Central content
creation (eg. World
of Warcraft) has become prohibitively
expensive and difficult. A major alternative
is facilitating user-created and user-controlled
content. Companies like Linden Lab (Second
Life) and Multiverse have publicly committed
to open sourcing most of their platforms.
Linden
Lab promotes virtual property rights for
the content that users create, but retains
a license to the user’s work as well
(including the ability to keep this content
in Second Life, should the user depart). Multiverse
has developed licenses that make their platform
code available to anyone. Derivative works/shards
can be made, but a licensing fee must be paid
if your product is a commercial success. This
empowers both users and small to medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) to generate content. What
other ways can content generation be facilitated?
The market is telling us that facilitating
creation is, in many ways, more important
than the quality. Summit quote: "WoW
cost $100 million dollars, has beautiful art
and 6 million users. MySpace cost almost nothing,
has terrible art, and 60 million users. Will
the metaverse be full of crappy but popular
user-created art?" |
|
| • Geodata
generation and interoperability. Getting the
many geographic
data sets to work together will be a real
challenge. All the disparate groups who originally
created spatial data didn't design it for
interoperability. There are many competing
industry and consortium
standards and they aren't easily convertible.
Most of the coming geospatial web may be populated
by data using plain English tags. We'll need
a very simple and easy tagging system because
there is so much unlabeled geodata. We also
need new semantic processes to combine casually-
and formally-created data. Another problem
with geocoding is dealing with spam. There's
also the question of validity – who
created the information and is it accurate? |
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14B. Issues and Choices - Business and
Economics
| •
Themed and authored vs. social and unauthored
virtual worlds (aka professionally-developed
vs. user-created content). Traditionally,
themed and authored worlds (World of Warcraft,
EverQuest, etc.), a multibillion dollar industry
today, have always been larger in size and
economic impact than social worlds. But as
better content creation tools emerge, and
more users embrace the new cultural conventions
of the participatory
web, we will see significantly faster
growth in percentage terms in unauthored social
world user base for many years to come. Second
Life and There are early harbingers of
this in the 3D space, but 2D social networks
like MySpace
(94 million users) and 2d social worlds like
Cyworld
(18 million users) and Habbo Hotel (7
million users) are even more dramatic
examples. While it seems certain that both
will continue to grow in popularity, it isn't
yet clear which type of world be dominant
economically in 2016 (see Uncertainties -
Business and Economics). |
|
| • What will
be the metaverse killer
app, the mass-use VisiCalc
of the 3D worlds space? Summit quote: "What
is the metaverse bringing to the table that
makes it more compelling than whatever else
users might be doing with that time, whether
its eating food, watching TV, going to class,
etc? What is our time calculus here? You could
argue that the web only succeeded when you
could do something useful in a short amount
of time." |
|
| • Global
immersion, a new platform and model for
news media. CNN
made its franchise as the first network
with instantaneous global digital reach.
But this requires an expensive network of
international reporters, and set the stage
for the rise of the more profitable newstainment
options like Fox
News, which gives the illusion of global
reach without the global reporters, and
makes up for their lack of depth with partisanship
instead of accuracy. But the coming of global
3G networks, high resolution video on cellphones,
and virtual worlds and internet television
platforms on which to stream citizen media
will allow the emergence ofglobal networks
both cheaper and more telepresent than CNN.
Real 3D video and audio taken by volunteer
and citizen journalists, amalgamated by
a network of editors that summarize and
abstract it for public consumption will
become a powerful new tool for informing
the world. Korea's OhMyNews,
already the fifth largest print newspaper
in Korea, is an early example. There will
certainly be a number of other business
models that take advantage of global immersion
technology. |
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14C. Issues and Choices - Social, Legal
and Other
| •
Impact of the next billion users. We are now
close to a billion internet users, and many
demographers expect this number to double
by 2016. How will the next billion online
migrants affect the shape and preferences
of the metaverse? In Everett Rogers' terms
(Diffusion
of Innovations, 5th Ed.), these next
users will be more traditional than the first
billion (e.g., neither Innovators
or Early Adopters) and have different
demands, including a much lower tolerance
for technological glitches. Summit quote:
"Right now we've got a billion people
online and there have been many online cultural
shifts. There's a whole lot of common culture
online. What I'm interested in is the effect
of the Next Billion." |
|
| • Common carrier and
telecommunication law. Will the metaverse
run afoul of common
carrier laws holding the virtual world
liable for losses and damages which occur
to property and person of the user while under
the common carrier's charge? What if lawsuits
hit metaverse platforms the same way they
hit Napster?
Summit quote: "What if a court decision
says Linden
Lab isn't common carrier for all conduct
in Second Life, but will be held responsible
for the use of content? What will that do?
That's just one legal concern going forward." |
|
| • Knowing
when to use the 2D and 3D web in single
vs. multi-user mode. Usage patterns of these
two modes is likely to be similar to human
behavior in physical space. The 3D web may
generally be most useful for multi-user
experience, but there will still be single-user
usages. By contrast, the 2D web is be most
useful for single-user experience, but there
will still be some multi-user usages. When
is it valuable for you to know that 1, 10
or 100 other folks are viewing the same
web page as you? Amazon
doesn't tell you this, and you are thankful.
When Google
spreadsheets
tells you, its often just annoying. We need
good design priorities that help users understand
when multi-user mode is and isn't useful,
and the option to customize. |
|
| • Transparency issues
in geospace. How will the growing virtual
transparency of geospace impact security and
privacy? Will clearances be required for access
to highly-accurate sims? Summit quote: "A
high-fidelity virtual White
House could be a national security risk.
There are going to be more security concerns
over spatial representation on the internet." |
|
| • Entertainment
law as a boon or bane. What are good policy
examples we can advocate as our law grows
to incorporate virtual worlds and their specialized
communities and economies? As the entertainment
factor is no longer the only major interest,
and the community and commerce elements of
VWs increase, the legal landscape will change. |
|
| • Discrimination
against the nonvirtual. Because of massive
network
effects, the internet became irresistible
to tens of millions of users shortly after
its emergence. There was so much potential
value that millions had to take advantage
of it. Virtual worlds soon stand to promise
the same thing, but with an even greater upside
in terms of social exposure, economic activity,
and eventually, even superior collaborative
efficiency vs. physical space. If we live
in a jacked-in society and that's where the
majority of social interaction happens, those
who aren't virtually augmented will suffer
social and economic disadvantages. How do
we minimize such discrimination, or will the
transition be so slow that this problem never
emerges? |
|
| • Using virtual worlds
to improve and solve global problems. As our
global monitoring GIS systems and virtual
world platforms get better, non-governmental
organizations can increasingly use them
to become "worldwatchers." They
can set their monitoring systems to ping them
when the issues they care about exceed thresholds
anywhere in the world, and then do their best
to draw attention and resources to the problem.
They can increasingly use virtual worlds to
mediate social change for complex problems
in underdeveloped regions. Dissenting opinion:
"Even such advances as international
cable networks and the internet have done
little to create a global consciousness to
date. Building a 3D model of the Darfur
region of Sudan in Second Life, for example,
as a few Westerners have recently done, has
little impact on our understanding of the
problem, and is even counterproductive when
it lulls the naive altruist into believing
they have positively engaged the issue when
in fact they've done nothing. Even if such
virtual models were visually representative,
which they aren't, that doesn't mean we would
understand the issues. Political transparency
is much harder to communicate, and one needs
an audience that cares to learn the complexities,
when few do. The least-wired places in the
world won't be transformed by synthetic worlds,
notwithstanding misguided optimism."
So what is the value to a Camp
Darfur in Second Life? This is controversial,
but certainly there is some value. One key
reason why virtual worlds today may be a poor
technology for social change in underdeveloped
regions, even when they get their facts straight,
is that one cannot use them yet to easily
establish personal connections to individuals
in those regions. Thus the potential power
of the network (stimulating one on one relationships,
citizen diplomacy, remittances, etc.) cannot
yet be leveraged for social good. One key
issue then involves how to get real numbers
of individuals in the world's worst areas
into digital space. This seems highly unlikely
to happen in significant numbers in places
where literacy, infrastructure, liesure, and
safety are such scarce commodities. The people
who need the help the most by definition will
be the least connected and defended, in every
sense of the word. |
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15.
Ideas and Proposals. General ideas and
proposals for pathways to the 3D web.
15A. Ideas and Proposals - Technology
and Science
| •
Open-sourcing a leading game world. One way
we might jump start the metaverse would be
an existing game world client taking its core
technology open source, and that client becoming
the standard for constructing interconnected
virtual worlds. Whatever API's
it supports would then be the favored ones.
Linden Labs, makers of Second
Life, is making at least small moves in
this direction. Libsecondlife,
for example, is an open source software library
(in beta development in 2006) that can be
used in a third party application to communicate
with SL's servers. |
|
| • Software
virtualization may enhance the network
effects of global virtual worlds development.
Imagine a single browser capable of creating
virtual machines that allow access to Second
Life, There, Active Worlds, Kaneva, VRML,
etc. all at the same time. Combine that with
software which tells me where the avatars
are congregating, and a directory wiki that
tells me what each world is about and I have
a virtual playground as interesting and clickable
as the 2D web. |
|
• Some technology paths
to a mature metaverse. We will need: -
More worlds that support peer-to-peer
interactivity and connections without going
through a central server. -
Another alternative would be a setup that
allows a server based solution that provides
easy geometry
instancing. - To empower
individuals and small groups to make private
worlds, and control who can gain access to
their personal spaces. - A
commercial venture that will provide technology
to support this vision of private, permission-based
virtual spaces. - User-friendly,
open-ended virtual
construction tools that enable a high
degree of customization. -
Better and cheaper PDAs and input and display
devices (typing gloves, monitor glasses) that
work comfortably with human bodies. -
Avatars
that can express the full range of human emotions
and social interactions with less lag.
- A social shift, so that video
games and virtual world technologies are not
feared and stigmatized but welcomed into our
everyday lives. |
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15B. Ideas and Proposals - Business and
Economics
| • Social networking sites
like Meetup
(2.3 million members in Jul 2006) and Eventful
(over 100,000 upcoming events listed as of
Jul 2006) are organizing the world's offline
social activities, and connecting them to
our online calendars (Google, Yahoo, Outlook,
etc.). As location-based event opportunities
come to our wearable GPS-equipped navigation
systems (e.g., Garmin's
fantastic handheld Nuvi)
and smart
phones in coming years, another level
of physical-virtual fusion will occur. Video
clips will share highlights of past events.
Virtual maps and pictures will increase RSVPs
for upcoming events. As social options in
the larger and denser cities exponentiate,
this will increase their draw over smaller
cities and rural areas. |
|
| • Potential
for a new game aggregator delivery and revenue
model. Korea is a bellwether for many gaming
trends. As a recent article on Korean casual
gaming notes, youth are beginning to sample
many casual games rather than play one, and
are outgrowing their interest in particular
casual games as rapidly as ever [71]. This
makes revenue models difficult, with most
casual game companies earning revenues off
the sale of virtual items, not subscriptions.
This proliferation of choice and increasing
internet bandwidth and hard disk drive space
may lead to the emergence of game aggregators
that provide licensed online access to a broad
variety of games for a flat monthly fee, but
who allow different lengths of access to each
of the premium games depending on licensing
terms. That would allow youth to explore the
widest palette of initial possibilities in
gamespace, to discover games they find particularly
intuitive and fun to play, and to pay extra
for unlimited access to favorite premium games
at any point in time. |
|
| • As virtual
worlds develop, groups like the Interactive
Advertising Bureau should come to see
the value of virtual worlds. Interactive marketing
holds the promise to move from the "tell
me" model (2D and 3D rote mass media)
through a "show me" one (demos,
personalized case studies) to a "change
me" perspective (personalized interactivity).
The more immersive the advertising experience,
the more customer impact and learning can
be measured though interactivity, rather than
simple click throughs or annoying surveys. |
|
| • Numerical reputation-based
worlds. A major unmet latent demand in online
social networks is the ability to develop
numerical social reputations based on both
1) quality of testimonials,
and 2) quantity and social
ranking of those giving the testimonials (eg.,
a system similar to Google's PageRank,
but for people's reputation). When this is
combined with the face to face mingling capacity
of online worlds, and the ability of high-reputation
individuals who share similar interests, live
in particular physical locations, have similar
socioeconomic status, etc. to mingle online,
we will see a huge new market for online worlds
as tools for quality social networking. Such
networking can in many ways exceed the value
of exclusive physical world meetings, as the
number and types of specialized networks will
be greatly multiplied over physical space.
The recent proliferation of online fansites
are harbingers of such community creation.
The economic value of networking based on
reputation, and the opportunity for better
social action that will occur, will unlock
major new potentials for social value creation
that will never be possible in physical space
for logistical reasons. |
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15C. Ideas and Proposals - Social, Legal
and Other
| •
Let's try to get past the use of "real
world" as a comparison when we
refer to virtual worlds. Rather than the
misleading dichotomy of "real world"
and "virtual world," or even "real
life (RL)" and "second life (SL),"
a more accurate pairing is "physical
world (PW)" and "virtual world
(VW)," and "physical life (PL)"
and "virtual life (VL)." When
we call the physical the "real"
we label the virtual the unreal, which just
isn't true. "Virtual
reality" is an accurate phrase,
because virtual is a special type of reality.
The virtual is as real as thought, emotion,
consciousness, and other "abstract"
informational spaces. The "virtual/physical"
dichotomy isn't perfect, as virtual spaces
(human thought, virtual worlds) are still
physically based (action potentials flowing
in neurons, electrons flowing in digital
circuits). But these processess are abstract,
with emergent meanings beyond the physical.
Using the word "virtual" in referring
to our electronic systems, as opposed to
"informational" or any other,
allows us to emphasize a process of global
development, a new system transition for
local intelligence that is occurring all
around us. |
|
| • P2P for social activism.
Interoperable peer-to-peer virtual worlds
might take off for social activism in emerging
nations because they are useful as an outlet
for anonymous political dissent, and are by
nature hard to control. Graphics and content
may lag behind in such worlds, but they are
uniquely useful as a platform for activism
and support of grey
market and black
market economies. What technological,
social, and political conditions (repressive
societies, etc.) might facilitate such a development? |
|
| • We will continue to
value the freedom of multiple
online identities. This happens in the
offline world when we behave differently in
a business meeting than we do hanging out
with friends. Likewise, as our avatars increase
in complexity many of us will want to have
at least two modes of familiarity, professional
and personal, and control access to who sees
our personal side. A subset of individuals,
such as youth engaged in identity exploration,
or minorities avoiding discrimination in majority
cultures, will maintain multiple identities.
With perseverance we can improve our verification
systems so that while anonymity is no longer
allowed, identity privacy is strongly protected
and not revealed except by consent, or cause
with due process. |
|
| • Digital
projection theatres may promote revitalized
public spaces, including "Third
Space Theatres". As digital networks
expand into the motion picture megaplexes
and art house theatres, people will be able
to get greater public access to the “long
tail” of visual content, including animated
and virtual world content. Netflix
today has 65,000 titles on DVD, and ships
as many as 40,000 of those every week to a
consumer base tired of the lowest common denominator
programming found in corporate chain theatres.
Such individuals presently remain isolated
even in high density urban environments, but
when it costs little for theatres to pipe
in HDTV content, narrowcast films will have
a new market. With luck, digital projection
will facilitate the emergence of the small
screening room (20-40 people) adjacent to
popular third spaces (independent and chain
coffee shops), which promote audience interaction
after the film. Hopefully some of the existing
corporate third spaces such as chain coffeshops
(Starbucks,
Coffee
Bean, etc.) and megabookstores (Barnes
and Noble, Borders,
etc.) will see the value of adding profitable
small screening rooms next door to their most
popular locations within the next ten years,
and using them to offer fee-based narrowcast
film content. We may also see a few of our
more innovative nonprofit third spaces like
public
librarys, reinvent themselves to include
small screening rooms. In an ideal model,
some upcoming screenings would be voted on
by the local community over a web interface,
maximizing diversity. People would be asked
to introduce themselves by name before the
screening starts, a simple request that is
practical in small screening rooms and would
greatly increase the community experience
of film viewing. Tickets would be purchased
automatically over the cellphone or web. Such
rooms will also be rentable for private screenings
in the late evening, the way karaoke
rooms are rented in Asian countries. Such
innovation would put pressure on the chain
movie theaters to remake themselves in ways
that would also serve minority and narrowcast
interests within the community. |
|
| • In
our best current assessment, the history
of local complex systems development has
been the movement into ever more ethereal,
ephemeral, less physical, more virtual forms.
In other words, our technological informational
systems are today moving beyond the physical
in a very important way. This is the full
meaning of the word virtual, and a transition
that Buckminster Fuller in 1938 first called
the "ephemeralization"
of the leading edge of complex systems in
Earth's history. John Smart calls this process
"MEST
compression," in a more recent
exploration of the virtualization trend.
Over time, the most complex local complex
systems in Earth's developmental history
have always figured out ways to use substantially
less Matter, Energy, Space, and Time to
do any standard of computation or physical
transformation, however measured or defined.
As perhaps the most obvious example of this,
human consciousness and our internal mental
models are built on a very small and energy
efficient (relative to genetic learning,
which occurs over generations) set of physical
processes in our neural structure, and are
engaged in an increasingly accurate yet
abstract simulation of physical space. Consciousness
and human thought is therefore a highly
virtual emergence. Machine thought and digital
models, even in their crude form today,
are more MEST-compressed, ephemeral, and
virtual still, as their evolutionary development
has occured in small fraction of the matter,
energy, space, and time that were necessary
to produce human thought. By current accounts,
as we move ever further into the microcosm
with the design of our digital systems,
our machine models are expected to become
stunningly more virtual still. At the same
time, biological human beings are being
lured to spend ever more of our time in
virtual space. In sum, understanding the
ways that all our virtual systems, both
biological and technological, progressively
free themselves from physical contraints
will be one of the keys to better guiding
the development of virtual reality in coming
years. |
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16.
Key Uncertainties. Unknowns and controversies
to be clarified in the future.
16A. Key Uncertainties - Technology and
Science
| •
Wireless broadband growth. By 2016, what percentage
of U.S. and global mobile device users (cell
phone, PDA, etc.) will have always-on broadband
internet accessibility (Evolution
Data-Optimized (EVDO) and successors)
from their devices? |
|
• 3D home
media center ('Metaverse Access Center")
platform growth. Will a multipurpose home
platform for internet
television, videoconferencing, and virtual
worlds be a key enabler of broad social adoption
of metaverse spaces?
By 2016, what percent of U.S. households will
have each of the following interactive 3D
capacities in their home media center, game
console, or PC? A. Interactive
internet-based video and television B.
3D teleconferencing C.
3D virtual worlds and MMO games |
|
| • Conversational
interface growth. For users in the U.S.,
when will the average query length used in
leading search applications (including search
engines, avatar bots, and other interfaces)
grow to seven words (voice or text)? For reference,
the average query length to search engine
Alta
Vista in 1998 was 1.3 words, and to Google
in 2005 was 2.7 words (doubled in seven years).
The average human-to-human verbal query is
eleven words. How necessary is a spoken conversational
interface to global 3D web usage? |
|
| • Life-recording systems
growth. In 2016, what percentage of the U.S.
population ages 13-30 will use “lifelog”
systems (wearable recording systems that capture,
autotag, and upload audiovisual experiences
to a server that allows contextual searching,
sharing, and selective reexamination by the
user)? Will social or legal/privacy issues
stunt their adoption? Will potential economic/performance
advantages of lifelog adoption be marginal
or substantial? |
|
| • Social dominance of
virtual
space. Summit quote: "How soon will
a network of metaverse technologies become
more effective for performing collaborative
tasks than a physical space? When will we
get more useful metadata talking avatar-to-avatar
than we get person-to-person in physical space?
Then when if ever will other technologies
allow physical space to catch back up? At
GDC
2006 Google
had a pretty high level meeting with one of
the game middleware companies. So what's that
about if not trying to take all the pieces
and put them together in a way that might
be very kludgey in the beginning but evolve
over time into something much more." |
|
| • 3D automotive
navigation systems. By 2016, what percentage
of automobiles will have at least partially
3D automotive navigation systems? |
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16B. Key Uncertainties - Business and
Economics
| • Open
source vs. proprietary. Over the next
ten years, how much of global 3D virtual world
and game commerce will occur in worlds that
are open source (shared code allowing public
or private derivative works and some general
public license for the basic elements of the
world/game), and how much will occur in worlds
that are proprietary (private licenses at
the core, as with Second Life or Google Earth)?
Are OS VW initiatives like DutchPIPE
(PHP/AJAX) the wave of the future or are they
destined to be minor players given VW complexity? |
|
| • VW and 3D web industry
boom-and-bust. By 2016 will we have seen an
internet-type financial boom-and-bust cycle
in the U.S., including a loss of more than
50% of stock value, with at least one publicly
traded stock
market index of virtual world and 3D web
related technology companies? |
|
| • Major software company
launches a user-owned virtual world economy.
How soon will a leading global software company
like Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.
launch, or buy and launch, a 3D virtual world
where users are encouraged to engage in economic
transactions and own as legal
property products they create in the world?
Google's recent moves improving interoperability
(Maya,
COLLADA,
etc.) and tools (SketchUp,
etc.) for Google
Earth, and talks with Second
Life, suggest they are increasingly interested
in this space. |
|
• Interoperability development.
When will we see successful synthetic worlds
whose business models are based on open
standards for the migration of users avatars
(traveling avatars/"travatars")
and virtual
assets between participating worlds? Will
this interoperability emerge first from gaming,
location based search, or some other sector?
Will it be aided by more by standards convergence
or by strategic partnerships between existing
worlds? In 2016, of the top 100 (by user base)
3D-enhanced online environments (entertainment,
communication, social, work, shopping, etc.)
how many will be in each of the following
interoperability categories? A.
Strongly interoperable (identities, reputations,
avatars, items, and currency may be easily
transferred or reused outside the environment,
if necessary using exporting and interfacing
systems promoted inside each world) B.
Mildly interoperable (some assets
are interoperable, but this is not always
easy or encouraged) C. Walled
gardens (proprietary spaces discouraging asset
transfer and reuse by licences as well as
barriers to migration) |
|
| • Content development
models. Over the next ten years, what percentage
of global 3D virtual world and game commerce
will occur via unpaid, user-created development
(ex: Second
Life, Croquet,
etc.), and what percentage via paid, professionally-created
development (ex: Counter-Strike,
The
Sims, World
of Warcraft, and most 3D social spaces
today)? For global video, TV, and film what
percentage of commerce will come from user-created
content (ex: YouTube,
Google
Video, etc.), and what percentage from
professionally-created content (ex: Cable
TV and Satellite
TV networks, film
studios, etc.)? |
|
| • Openness of delivery
platforms. Over the next ten years, what percentage
of global video, TV, and film commerce will
occur on delivery platforms that are open
access/competitive
(ex: internet video/TV, public cable TV, etc.)
and what percentage on platforms that are
proprietary/monopoly
(ex: satellite and most cable TV , theatres,
etc.)? |
|
| • Top down vs. bottom
up 3D world production. How quickly will today’s
top-down, studio-created (EA,
NCSoft,
etc.) alternative worlds be challenged for
audience by bottom-up, user-created alternative
worlds (Second
Life, There,
etc.) and user-annotated mirror worlds (Google
Earth, Microsoft
Windows Live Local, etc.) built on top
down designed platforms. Increasing numbers
of top down games can be expected within bottom
up world platforms, and bottom-up games and
mods built within in top down platforms. Will
this "third category" blurring of
boundaries, mixing the two production styles,
be extensive or minor? |
|
| • 3D e-shopping.
For what things will the inefficiencies of
3D shopping be worth the sensory and social
benefit? For which will we see the greatest
success early on? Music? Fashion? Video on
demand? Imagine an Amazon.com
virtual world with an "infinite shelf."
In what ways would shopping in a 3D space
be preferable to 2D? Will we use it mainly
because of its social dimension? How could
that be enhanced and customized? For what
types of goods will it work best? |
|
| • Value of 3D worlds
for distributed workgroups. Over the next
ten years how often will distributed collaborating
work groups use voice-enabled 3D applications
(videoconferencing, virtual office spaces,
etc.) as opposed to voice-enabled 2D-only
software (eg: Skype + Writely, Groove, etc.)?
Will the adoption and use be mild or substantial?
Seriosity
and other virtual office startups are betting
they can find a niche with today's first generation
virtual world and 3G broadband capacities. |
|
| •
Will either social or themed worlds be economically
dominant in 2016? Today, the leading 2D social
networking sites and social worlds are
growing at astonishing rates. Some, like Cyworld,
have been profitable from the beginning, while
others, like MySpace,
recently purchased by News
Corporation, have yet to make a profit,
even with 94 million users. Meanwhile themed
virtual worlds (World of Warcraft, EverQuest,
etc.) with just ten to twenty million users
collectively, are already a multibillion dollar
industry. Improvement in participatory
web technologies will bring allow users
to add major new content value to online communities
in the coming decade, and may preferentially
enable them over themed worlds, which must
restrict content to maintain the theme. While
both types of worlds will clearly continue
to prosper, predicting which will be dominant
economically in 2016, and which monetization
strategies (advertising, subscription, etc.)
will be most successful in the process, remain
important open questions. |
|
| • Value of a contiguous
metaverse. Will there be superior value, from
the consumer's perspective, of an architecture
of contiguous (transparently connected) geography
in the metaverse versus archipelagos of isolated
worlds, as we have today? It isn't yet clear
to what extent worlds that link up transparently
will gain traction over walled
gardens. The original open source vision
of VRML was websites with parts to them that
were 3D bubbles, and we could wander through
them discontinuously. A commercial analog
of this today is Cyworld
in South Korea, with 15 million users, a large
fraction of which have 3D home pages people
can wander through, trade objects, wallpaper,
music, form groups, etc, all under the umbrella
of a single service provider. Will there ever
be a compelling reason to do this open source?
As the technological ability to have 3D object
interchangeability comes about, what will
be the legal roadblocks to migrating user
experience and objects from proprietary virtual
worlds? When users of balkanized 3D worlds
demand the ability to take their products
into new shared spaces, what will happen?
Summit quote: "If I want to bring my
60th level character and objects from Blizzard’s
World of Warcraft into a new game environment,
with reverse engineered protocols but new
adventures on a platform not designed by Blizzard,
one would expect them to sue to prevent this.
But as players get increasingly invested in
their characters, some will demand increasing
flexibility and interoperability. What legal
options will they have?" Will efficient
3D behaviors in online workplaces (like Amazon’s
one-click
buying algorithm) be patentable? Will
patent holders be able to prevent users from
using those behaviors in competing online
work environments? |
|
| • How popular will peer-to-peer
file sharing networks be in 2016? There
is some early evidence that peer-to-peer networks
are saturating in popularity. BigChampagne
Online Media Measurement reports the total
estimated simultaneous worldwide P2P users
averaged 7.8 million users in 2004, but there
were only 8.9 million users two years later
in July 2006 [59]. Increasing ease of purchasing
and affordability of online music, increasing
copy protection on digital media (music, video,
software), and increasing consequences of
using peer-to-peer systems for criminal purposes,
both minor and major, may continue to keep
P2P growth flat. At the same time, legal liability
for operating networks which facilitate piracy
may only continue to grow, hampering the profitability
of P2P platforms. In 2005, the U.S. Supreme
Court ruled that the owners and operators
of file-swapping networks could be held liable
for encouraging people to download copyrighted
works. After every major filesharing service
has been sued for promoting piracy (Napster,
Kazaa,
etc.), its popularity has fallen dramatically.
On the other hand, increasingly powerful computers,
better bandwidth, and intelligent platforms
may make P2P networks more popular. Also,
P2P networks designed for other purposes,
such as the VoIP program Skype,
have been growing on a much faster trend,
with 1 million concurrent users in Oct 2004
and 6 million concurrent users in March 2006.
Skype now handles an astounding 7% of the
world's long distance minutes as of May 2006
[59]. As Skype
2.0 with Video emerges, the opportunity
for file sharing may occur, or Skype may avoid
this to prevent liability issues. Finally,
P2P antipiracy and transparency standards,
like the Broadcast
Flag, a continual objective of many in
the political arena, may emerge after a high
profile "catastrophe" involving
encrypted P2P use, as with child pornography
sharing or other organized criminal behavior.
Much seems uncertain on this issue at the
present time. |
|
| • Metaverse
hype
cycle. Since the VRML
days in the mid-1990's we've see a well documented
hype cycle in virtual world technologies (see
Cycles, 7Ba). When will we see a hype cycle
of investment begin in businesses based on
Web 2.0 virtual world and geospatial platforms,
and how fast will there be another phase of
disillusionment with these technologies? How
short-lived will that be before the next technology-enabled
hype? |
|
| • Impact
of virtual consumption on environmental
sustainability.
Clearly the developed economies consume
so much real goods and raw materials per
capita that the rest of the world couldn’t
sustainably consume at the same level. Will
increasingly virtual consumption among developed
economies youth help us transition to global
sustainability? What will be the impact
on per capita physical world consumption
(goods, energy, etc.) of a fully enabled
metaverse? Is the consumption of ideas and
experiences (entertainment, communications,
etc.) increasingly competing against the
consumption of physical items? If so, this
may have very positive implications for
the decreasing use of energy and other resources.
Parts of the traditional physical economy
like business travel, even tourist travel
may decline, at least per capita. The production,
shipping, storing of many types of real
physical goods may go down. |
|
| • Incremental vs. exponential
advance of virtual worlds. Once it reaches
a threshold functionality, will virtual worlds
technology adoption advance as rapidly as
the 2D web did? Faster? The software is more
complex, but our updating tools are getting
much better. VoIP,
for example, has rapidly expanded (Skype,
etc.) in a short period once adequate quality
was available. |
|
| • Long-run impact of
virtualization. As Dmitri Ivanov argues ("Postindustrialization
and the Virtualization of the Economy,"
J of Soc and Social Anthro, 1998
1(1)), are we seeing the beginnings of the
start of a major shift of human activity into
virtual space? Over the longer term, will
our physical world economy start to saturate
as the virtual economy goes exponential? If
so, will increasingly more of the labor cost
of tomorrow’s companies go to paying
the virtually creative people? [85] |
|
| • New geography
of jobs. What will be the typical spectrum
of jobs in a fully metaverse-enabled world,
one navigable by conversational interface? |
|
| • Top ten uses of the
metaverse. What will people most use the 3D
web for by 2016? Entertainment? Games? Socializing?
Commerce? What else? |
|
| |
|
| |
|
16C. Key Uncertainties - Social, Legal
and Other
| • Banking oversight in
virtual world businesses. By 2016, will U.S.
courts rule that U.S.
banking regulations apply to the management
and exchange of virtual world economic assets
and/or to the financial markets (currency
exchanges, etc.) associated with virtual
worlds? Or will the virtual economy stay free
of banking oversight within this time horizon? |
|
| • Securities oversight
in virtual world businesses. By 2016, will
U.S. regulators rule that U.S.
securities and investment laws apply to
at least some 3D world stock exchanges or
investment markets, or will today's early
virtual versions (e.g., Metaverse
Stock Exchange in Second Life) remain
unregulated and uncertified? |
|
| • Fair
use in virtual space. How will image rights
play out in virtual space? Will it be legal
to make highly accurate copies of national
monuments and public buildings? Of private
buildings? Of private individuals? What will
constitute fair use, and how will image rights
and trademark law be changed to reflect the
protection of images in 3D space? |
|
| •
Liability of virtual
worlds platforms for intellectual property
violation. To what degree will virtual world
companies (as opposed to the infringers)
be held liable under common carrier and
other laws from users copying and trading
in others’ intellectual property?
During the first years of public photocopiers,
the law was unclear to what degree the photocopier
companies (Xerox,
etc.) would be held liable for user infringements.
This lack of clarity slowed the development
of the technology, and for years only small,
risktaking companies like Copico
were willing to enter the self-service copying
industry. The law has matured so that the
user is solely liable for infringements
with self-service copying, but companies
that provide copying service (FedEx
Kinko’s, etc.) share the liability
and burden of ensuring the copying jobs
they do for customers are legal. When will
we see a similar clarification in virtual
worlds, and to what degee will 3D world
providers be held liable for self-service/user-created
IP violations? |
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